See Beyond the First Layer.... the Ripple

Often a limited and narrow view of an issue keeps use from getting to purple. One of the things that disturbs me about Trump is he seems to often take one bit of information and then decry it as the most amazing thing in the world, or totally horrible. He does not seem willing to explore beyond the first layer.

To a degree, we are all guilty of this. We look at what is right in front of us and apply a one on one analyses... solution to problem. In truth most solutions have a ripple effect. Let's take the supply chain in economics. I am in contact with many people in the wholesale distribution industry. That industry is hurting right now. Many have sufficient demand for their products, but they can't fill them. Let's say they sell widgets. The widget might be made up of 8 parts as an example. If 7 can fill the demand but the supplier of one part can't afford inventory or cuts back on employees or goes out of business, the wholesale distributor can not get widgets to fill the orders he might have. ( Yes this is a simple illustration. It is only given to serve as an example of understanding there is a bigger picture). It is not a mater of turning the economy off and on and have a 90% short-term recovery. It might mean an even lower long term recovery because 10% hurting means more than 10% of the supply chain feels the effect. Even if we look at the current recovery which has consumer spending as a key segment. While consumer spending is strong, we need to ask the question how are consumers affording their spending. What us happening to their savings and debt. Savings are what funds loans for business expansion. If savings are going down, less is available for economic expansion and what is available will be at a higher interest rate. That means businesses have to charge higher prices and/or employ less people to make up for the difference. Employing less people means less consumer demand in the long term and lower economic growth. That means more crime, more poverty, more hunger. Tax hikes to businesses work much in the same way. Of course stimulus packages and tax cuts have their ripple effect. If either result in a greater federal deficit, that will tend to raise interest rates and have many of the same long term effects described above. It is a balancing act. No ma6ter what you do, there are effects that ripple throughout. Add spending in one place, and then you have to ask where do you cut and what effects that has, or if you increase the deficit what does that effect? It is like many medications, what are the side effects? Money does not come magically out of thin air and the economy is not a faucet.

Beyond the fact the economy is not a simplistic entity, if you evaluate lock downs as an example you have to look beyond the immediate effect on the spread of the virus. The WHO has recently recommended we get away from lockdowns because the subsequent health costs exceed the benefits against the spread of the virus https://nypost.com/2020/10/11/who-warns-against-covid-19-lockdowns-due-to-economic-damage. They also had a report that warned damages to the supply chain of medical supplies world wide could lead to 1,000,000 additional non-Covid deaths ( I have to investigate this further). I have also researched the correlation between unemployment and suicide rates. Just this "side-effect" alone could cost more lives than we save. What about the long term effect on the nutritional deficiency in kids where their parents can not afford good diets? What happens to retirement plans and education funds if the stock-market goes down and/or savings get depleted? There is a document signed by over 30K doctors called The Great Barrigton Declaration https://gbdeclaration.org/ stating concerns about lock-downs and proposing focused protection ( let most people live a normal life but increase protection of the most at risk).

Simply opening things up also carries risk. As the virus spreads so does it have effects beyond the tragic deaths. It is serious and we don't know the long-term consequences of contacting it even if you survive.

The point is we need to evaluate all the "side-effects" and find a balance. It is not as simple as "lives versus the economy", or "we need to get back to business and grow the economy".

Look at the tough on crime movement in the 90's. Simply locking up the criminals longer has had very negative social effects.

The same is true of all social justice programs, border plans, ALL things. The above is just one example. I am not saying there is not a case for lock-downs as we have them today, I am saying we need to look beyond the first layer and see the ripples our actions create on every proposal and on everything. In that way we will not only get solutions with the best overall outcome, but stop much of the fighting between us based on two simplistic stances.